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Resolves tonight — Feb 17 00:00 UTC

Inside a $190,000 Attempt to Move a Prediction Market

A derivative "meta-market" created a direct incentive to manipulate a Polymarket contract. We reconstructed the attack using 157,000 orderbook snapshots — and found the book defended itself.

Case: Jesus Christ Return 2027 · 4 days of L10 orderbook data · Feb 16, 2026
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Attack Capital
$190K+
Cost to 5% (Before)
$8,702
Cost to 5% (After)
$53,616
Liquidity Hardening
6.2×
Key finding: The orderbook developed an immune response. Ask-side liquidity increased 6.2× as market makers recognized the attack and deployed capital to defend the 5% threshold — turning a $8,700 opportunity into a $200K+ proposition.
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